Canada’s military is examining whether a more permanent presence in Latvia could help sustain its long-term NATO commitment, as concerns grow about troop shortages and rising security risks in the Baltic region.
Lt.-Gen. Steve Boivin, commander of the Canadian Joint Operations Command, confirmed that a formal study is underway to assess how Canada’s largest overseas deployment can be maintained into the future. One option under review includes moving beyond rotational deployments toward permanent basing, though Boivin stressed that the analysis is still in its early stages and no recommendations have yet been made to the chief of the defence staff or the federal government.
Prime Minister Mark Carney announced last August that Canada’s NATO mission in Latvia would be extended through 2029. Canada currently maintains a near-continuous rotational presence of about 2,200 troops, with personnel typically serving six- to nine-month tours.
Boivin said the review is being driven by operational realities, including chronic personnel shortages within the Canadian Armed Forces and the logistical challenges of rapidly deploying reinforcements during a crisis. Ensuring the mission’s long-term sustainability, he said, requires a reassessment of how Canada maintains its forces abroad.
Canada has not had a permanent military base in Europe since the end of the Cold War. Its last such presence — two major bases in West Germany — closed in 1993.
Carney recently concluded a European trip with a visit to Canadian troops in Latvia, where Canada leads a NATO brigade. Ottawa aims to have the full complement of 2,200 troops persistently deployed by 2026. However, Royal Military College professor Christian Leuprecht has warned that sustaining that level of commitment will be a significant challenge, particularly given equipment constraints.
Other NATO allies are already moving toward permanent deployments in the region. Germany announced earlier this year that it will establish the 45th Panzer Brigade — roughly 5,000 troops — as a permanent force in Lithuania, with full operational capability expected by 2027.
Boivin’s comments also follow warnings from security analysts and Baltic leaders that the region could be a future target of Russian aggression. Estonia’s foreign minister, Margus Tsahkna, told a U.S. congressional commission that Russia could rebuild and reinforce its military presence along the Baltic borders within two to three years, potentially surpassing pre-Ukraine invasion levels.
Advocates argue that permanent basing would strengthen deterrence. Writing earlier this month, Hudson Institute fellow Daniel Kochis said expanding NATO’s presence in the Baltics would signal unity and resolve, adding that weakness — not reinforcement — poses the greater risk.
While NATO has historically relied on rotational deployments rather than Cold War-era bases, that approach has been increasingly questioned since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Although NATO once pledged not to establish permanent bases in Eastern Europe, defence experts note that the NATO-Russia Founding Act has effectively collapsed following repeated Russian violations, including the 2014 annexation of Crimea.
Canadian defence analyst Steve Saideman said permanent basing could reduce costs and ease the strain on troops by eliminating constant rotations. He added that the current system — with forces cycling through training, deployment, and recovery — leaves the Canadian Army with little capacity for other operations.
Any move toward a permanent base would require Latvia’s consent, changes to legal agreements governing troop deployments, and NATO’s approval. It would also represent a major political decision in Canada, likely requiring parliamentary debate and a non-binding vote.
Latvian officials, including the country’s defence minister, have publicly supported a stronger NATO footprint and increased equipment stockpiling in the region, signalling openness to a deeper and more enduring allied presence.
