9th December 2024: A recent Abacus Data survey conducted from November 28 to December 4, 2024, reveals that Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives continue to dominate Ontario’s political landscape, holding an 18-point lead over Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberals. The survey sampled 1,500 eligible voters across the province.
If an election were held today, 43% of committed voters would back the PCs, compared to 25% for the Liberals, 21% for the Ontario NDP, and 6% for the Greens. These figures align closely with previous polling results, maintaining the PCs’ consistent 16-20 point advantage since May.
Regional and Demographic Trends
The PCs lead in every region, holding a 20-point advantage in the GTHA, 16 points in eastern Ontario, and a commanding 24-point lead in southwestern Ontario. In Toronto, the PCs are ahead of the Liberals by 15 points, showing a rebound from last month’s poll.
Demographically, the PCs hold a 25-point lead among men, an 11-point lead among women, and dominate across all age groups, particularly among voters aged 60 and over, where they lead by 22 points.
Approval Ratings and Leader Favourability
Premier Ford’s approval ratings have improved slightly, with 37% of Ontarians expressing a positive view of his leadership—an increase of 3 points from last month—while 43% hold a negative opinion. Ford’s net favourability score currently sits at -6, the lowest since tracking began in April.
NDP Leader Marit Stiles is the only provincial leader with a net positive favourability score at +3, while Bonnie Crombie holds a net score of -7, reflecting marginal improvement.
Federal Politics and the Liberal Decline
The poll suggests that federal politics may be influencing provincial trends. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s popularity is at a low in Ontario, with only 22% holding a positive view and 62% expressing a negative impression. This unpopularity appears to affect the Ontario Liberal Party, as voters’ opinions of Trudeau correlate strongly with their provincial voting intentions.
Among those with very positive impressions of Trudeau, 67% would vote Liberal provincially. However, this figure drops to 5% among those with a very negative view of the Prime Minister.
Public Sentiment on Government Performance
Approval for the Ford government has risen slightly, with 37% of respondents expressing approval, up 4 points since early November. In comparison, the federal government’s approval rating remains significantly lower, at 26% in Ontario.
The survey highlights the sustained strength of the PCs under Ford’s leadership, with regional and demographic advantages solidifying their position as Ontario’s leading party.
