A new Nanos Research poll commissioned by CTV News suggests Prime Minister Mark Carney currently faces no clear challenger within the Conservative Party.
The survey, conducted between July 28 and 30 through random telephone and online interviews, asked Canadians which Conservative politician would have the best chance of defeating Carney if they led the Conservative Party.
One-third of respondents (33 per cent) said none of the listed Conservatives could defeat the prime minister. Former prime minister Stephen Harper ranked first with 16 per cent support, closely followed by Official Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre at 15 per cent. Ontario Premier Doug Ford placed third with 11 per cent.
Other prominent Conservatives—including Peter MacKay, Rona Ambrose, Danielle Smith, Jean Charest and Lisa Raitt—each received less than 10 per cent support. Jason Kenney, Mark Mulroney, Erin O’Toole, Andrew Scheer, Leslyn Lewis, Tim Houston, Jamil Jivani and Caroline Elliott all registered five per cent or less.
Nanos Research founder and chief data scientist Nik Nanos said the results present a mixed picture for Poilievre. While only a small share of Canadians see him as capable of defeating Carney, there also appears to be no widely recognized alternative within the Conservative ranks.
The findings come as Poilievre continues to face internal party tensions following recent remarks describing supporters of defeated B.C. Conservative leadership candidate Caroline Elliott as “Liberal lobbyists from out east.”
Nanos suggested Carney’s appeal to centrist and moderate conservative voters has been strengthened by policies such as eliminating the federal consumer carbon tax and advancing major energy infrastructure projects, including pipelines.
The poll reflects Carney’s continued personal popularity since the 2025 federal election. A separate Nanos survey released on July 28 found 54 per cent of Canadians preferred Carney as prime minister, compared with 18.2 per cent for Poilievre.
Federal voting intentions remain more competitive, however. The Liberals stand at 44.7 per cent support, while the Conservatives trail at 29.5 per cent. The NDP sits at 12.7 per cent.
Nanos also noted that uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump and Canada-U.S. relations has helped extend Carney’s political honeymoon. Although many Canadians remain concerned about affordability, trade uncertainty and the economy, the survey suggests they are not currently placing the blame on the Liberal government.
Looking ahead, Nanos said the coming months could present a tougher political environment for Carney, with Quebec’s provincial election and Alberta’s referendum expected to test his government’s ability to maintain public support.
