Prime Minister Mark Carney says his government has examined the possibility of U.S. military action against Canada as part of its responsibility to prepare for even highly unlikely scenarios, following repeated comments from U.S. President Donald Trump about Canada becoming the 51st state.
In an interview with The New York Times, Carney described such a scenario as an “extreme tail risk” rather than an expected outcome. He said assessing low-probability but potentially serious threats is part of responsible risk management. Carney declined to provide details about what preparations or assessments had been undertaken.
The comments follow months of tension between Ottawa and Washington. Trump has repeatedly suggested Canada could become a U.S. state and has previously raised both economic pressure and the possibility of military force, although he later ruled out using the military. Relations have also been strained by trade disputes, including the collapse of negotiations last month that pushed the two countries closer to imposing higher tariffs on each other.
Despite those tensions, Carney said he continues to speak frequently with Trump and described their working relationship as direct and functional. He said the two leaders are able to discuss disagreements openly and indicated Canada remains prepared to negotiate a trade agreement with the United States.
At the same time, Ottawa is working to reduce Canada’s dependence on the U.S. in several strategic areas. Carney pointed to efforts to lessen reliance on Starlink, the satellite internet service operated by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, while the federal government is also reviewing Canada’s planned purchase of F-35 fighter jets from U.S. defence contractor Lockheed Martin.
Carney has increasingly argued that Canada and other middle powers need greater economic and strategic independence as the international order changes. Earlier this year, he called on middle powers to cooperate more closely and diversify their relationships rather than remaining heavily dependent on larger global powers.
