Newly surfaced video evidence is increasing the likelihood that a U.S. missile strike hit a school in southern Iran where a blast killed more than 165 people earlier in the ongoing Middle East conflict.
The footage, analyzed by the investigative group Bellingcat, appears to show a missile striking a compound near the school in Minab, located in Iran’s Hormozgan province. The school sits adjacent to a base operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Experts reviewing the video say the weapon visible in the footage is likely a Tomahawk cruise missile, a munition currently used by U.S. forces in the conflict. The strike occurred on Feb. 28, early in the war that has been escalating across the Middle East.
Trevor Ball, a researcher with Bellingcat, identified the missile in the footage as a Tomahawk based on its flight characteristics and visual profile. The missile strike appears to have occurred as several bombs were hitting the nearby military compound.
A U.S. official familiar with internal discussions told the Associated Press that the strike was likely carried out by the United States, though the official spoke anonymously because they were not authorized to comment publicly.
The video was originally recorded on the day of the blast but circulated publicly by Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency days later. It shows a missile striking a building and sending a plume of smoke into the air just meters from the school where the deadly explosion occurred.
The findings challenge earlier statements from Donald Trump, who suggested Iran itself was responsible for the blast. Speaking to reporters, Trump argued that Iran could have access to Tomahawk missiles and claimed the weapon was “very generic” and used by multiple countries.
However, analysts say there is no evidence that Iran possesses Tomahawk missiles, which are produced by the U.S. defense contractor Raytheon and typically sold only to close American allies such as Japan and Australia.
The U.S. military’s United States Central Command has acknowledged using Tomahawk missiles during the current conflict. It previously released images showing the destroyer USS Spruance launching a Tomahawk missile on the same day as the strike while operating with the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group.
Investigators say several additional factors point toward a U.S. strike. The Pentagon has reportedly initiated an internal assessment of the incident — a step typically taken when there is preliminary evidence that U.S. forces may have been responsible for civilian harm.
The location of the school may also have contributed to the incident. It sits next to an IRGC base and near naval barracks that had been targeted in the broader military campaign. The United States has acknowledged conducting strikes in the surrounding area.
The Israeli military has denied carrying out the strike and has generally focused its operations on Iranian regions closer to Israel, far from the southern province where the school was hit.
Independent investigators have not yet been able to reach the site to collect physical evidence such as missile fragments, making a definitive determination difficult while the conflict continues.
Legal experts warn that if the school was struck intentionally or mistakenly as part of the military operation, it could constitute a serious breach of international humanitarian law.
Janina Dill, an expert in international law at University of Oxford, said that even if the strike resulted from a misidentification of the target, it could still represent a major legal violation.
“Attackers are under an obligation to do everything feasible to verify the status of targeted objects,” she wrote.
Officials in Washington have taken a more forceful stance on the ongoing military campaign. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently said the United States was conducting one of the most powerful air campaigns in history and emphasized that American forces were prioritizing speed and decisive action in the conflict.
