U.S. President Donald Trump has once again raised questions about the future of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), suggesting the trade pact could “expire immediately” and declaring he would prefer not to have a North American trade agreement in place.
Speaking to reporters on Wednesday while departing the G7 Summit in France, Trump criticized the agreement, despite having negotiated and signed it during his first term in office. He also repeated comments made last week indicating that he is “not looking to renew” the deal.
However, trade experts note that CUSMA cannot simply expire overnight. The agreement, which came into force in 2020, remains valid until 2036 unless one of the member countries formally withdraws. Under the terms of the pact, a country seeking to leave must provide six months’ written notice.
The agreement governs approximately $2.7 trillion in annual trade between Canada, the United States and Mexico, making it one of the world’s largest free trade frameworks.
Trump argued that the United States would be better off without the deal, but business groups and industry leaders have pointed to CUSMA’s economic benefits. According to the U.S. Business Roundtable, trade within North America has increased by roughly 50 per cent since the agreement took effect, while trade with Canada and Mexico supports an estimated 13 million American jobs.
Questions also remain about whether a U.S. president can unilaterally withdraw from a congressionally approved trade agreement. A 2020 report by the Republican-led Senate Finance Committee concluded that congressional approval would likely be required for such a move.
Trump’s latest criticism contrasts sharply with his praise of the agreement when it was signed in January 2020. At the time, he described CUSMA as “the largest, fairest, most balanced, and modern trade agreement ever achieved” and called it a major victory for American workers, farmers and manufacturers.
Despite the rhetoric, negotiations surrounding the future of CUSMA continue. Canada and Mexico have both expressed support for extending the agreement beyond 2036, while discussions between Canadian and U.S. officials are already underway ahead of the July 1 review deadline.
Industry groups across North America, including manufacturing and agricultural organizations, have also urged governments to preserve and modernize the trade pact rather than abandon it.
For now, while Trump’s comments have fuelled uncertainty, there is no indication that CUSMA is on the verge of disappearing, and any effort to withdraw from the agreement would face significant legal, political and economic hurdles.
