If Alberta were to become an independent country, the province’s oil and gas exports to the United States would likely continue flowing—but only after complex negotiations with Canada, according to experts.
While Alberta produces around five million barrels of oil per day and sends more than two-thirds of its crude to the U.S., most of that oil reaches American markets through pipelines that pass across British Columbia and Manitoba rather than directly from Alberta. As a result, an independent Alberta would rely on transit agreements with Canada to move its largest export.
Experts say such agreements are possible, citing existing pipeline arrangements as models, but they would not be automatic. Trade lawyer Lawrence Herman noted that a newly independent Alberta would need to negotiate new trade and pipeline transit agreements from scratch because it would no longer be covered by Canada’s existing treaties.
Former Alberta energy minister Sonya Savage said agreements could likely be reached, but cautioned that the process would not be straightforward. Energy economist Andrew Leach added that while pipeline transit through another country is common internationally, Alberta’s situation would be unprecedented.
If Alberta votes for separation, Canada could use pipeline access through Saskatchewan, Manitoba and British Columbia as leverage during negotiations. However, Alberta would also hold bargaining power because much of Canada’s refining and gas distribution system depends on Alberta-produced energy. Keith Wilson, leader of the separatist group Let Alberta Decide, argues Alberta would negotiate “from a position of strength” and points to British Columbia’s reliance on transportation links through Alberta.
The current pipeline network was designed to serve Canada as a whole rather than an individual province. Most oil and gas lines were built to efficiently connect Alberta production with major refining hubs in Eastern Canada and the U.S. Midwest, making existing routes more practical than constructing new direct pipelines. Experts also note that building new infrastructure to bypass other provinces would be significantly more expensive than using the current system.
Despite the potential complications, experts believe economic interdependence could encourage both sides to maintain the uninterrupted flow of energy. Herman said Canada may ultimately decide that allowing Alberta’s oil and gas to continue transiting through the country without additional barriers would be in the national interest, though the outcome would depend entirely
