A recent survey reveals that close to three in ten Ontario voters intend to cast their ballots strategically in the upcoming election. The survey, conducted between February 20 and 22, gathered responses from 920 Ontarians about their motivations when deciding who to support.
Findings show that approximately 17% of respondents plan to vote against a party they do not want to win, while 11% intend to vote against a leader they dislike. Meanwhile, 40% of voters stated they would choose a party they support, and 29% would vote based on their preference for a specific leader. About 4% of respondents were uncertain about their voting approach.
According to the analysis, strategic voting is more common among supporters of certain political parties, while another group’s voters are more likely to have already made up their minds.
In Toronto, a key battleground, 39.8% of respondents said they would vote for a party they like, while 21.9% preferred voting for a leader they support. Additionally, 20.7% stated they would vote against a party they do not want to win, and 15.2% would vote against a leader they do not favor.
The survey also found that 59% of respondents had already decided on their choice before the campaign began. However, 29% stated they were leaning toward a particular party but might reconsider their decision before Election Day. Among supporters of different parties, some were more likely to remain firm in their choices, while others were more open to changing their minds.
A follow-up survey conducted between February 23 and 25, with over 1,200 Ontario voters, showed that 45.7% of decided respondents supported one party, giving it a 14-point lead over the second-place contender, which had 31.9% support. Another party was backed by 16.5% of voters, while 3.8% supported a different group.
Throughout the campaign, support for the leading party among decided voters has remained relatively steady, fluctuating between 42.6% and 46.4%.
Among all voters, including those still undecided, 41% indicated support for the leading party, 28.7% backed another major party, 14.8% supported a different group, and 3.5% favored another option. Additionally, 1.8% chose an alternative party, while 10.3% remained undecided.
Recent polling suggests that one party is gaining support while another is seeing a decline. The leading party currently holds an advantage in four out of five regions, with Toronto still a closely contested area.
When asked about their preferred choice for premier, 40.8% of respondents selected the current leader of the leading party, while 27% supported the leader of another major party. Additionally, 13.8% favored a different party leader, and 5.8% backed another option.
The latest survey results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
