12 August: Between July 31 and August 7, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a survey with 1,550 Canadian adults to explore voter intentions and key political issues. The results indicate that the Conservative Party maintains a strong 20-point lead over the Liberals, with 43% of committed voters supporting the Conservatives and 23% backing the Liberals. This marks the sixteenth consecutive survey showing such a gap. The Conservatives’ lead is consistent across all regions, with significant support among all demographic groups. Pierre Poilievre’s positive impressions are increasing, and the Conservatives’ accessible voter pool has grown to 55%, compared to 39% for the Liberals.
In terms of regional dynamics, the Conservatives have a strong lead outside Quebec, where they are close to securing nearly half of the committed voters. Support for the NDP stands at 18%, while the Greens have 4%, and the Bloc Québécois holds 30% in Quebec.
The survey also highlights that a significant percentage of voters from other parties, including 24% of Liberal supporters and 20% of NDP supporters, are open to voting Conservative. Meanwhile, the Liberals have a smaller pool of accessible voters among current supporters of other parties.
Demographically, the Conservative vote share remains consistent regardless of gender, and support is particularly strong among those aged 45 to 59. Although there are slight fluctuations, such as a 7-point increase in Conservative support among the 45-59 age group, these changes are within the margin of error.
Overall, the survey suggests that while vote intention remains stable, the Conservatives are effectively expanding their voter base, with growing interest from voters who previously supported other parties.
