Prime Minister Mark Carney will travel to Turkey this week for what analysts are calling one of the most challenging NATO summits in recent years, as alliance leaders navigate growing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s stance toward the military alliance.
Carney is expected to use the summit to emphasize Canada’s renewed commitment to NATO, highlighting increased defence spending and the country’s plan to meet the alliance’s target of spending five per cent of GDP on defence by 2035.
However, much of the attention is expected to centre on Trump, whose recent remarks on NATO, Iran, Greenland and U.S. defence spending have raised concerns among allies. Experts say the summit could be dominated by efforts to manage tensions with the U.S. president rather than discussions on long-term security priorities.
Stephen Saideman, director of the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University, described the gathering as potentially “the tensest summit yet,” noting that NATO leaders are likely focused on ensuring alliance unity despite political friction.
Trump has repeatedly criticized NATO members for failing to spend enough on defence and has again questioned why the United States contributes more than any other ally. He has also continued floating the idea of acquiring Greenland, a proposal that has unsettled several European partners.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has publicly praised Trump’s influence on increasing allied defence spending, pointing to more than US$1 trillion in additional commitments from Europe and Canada since Trump’s first term. Some observers, however, have criticized Rutte’s approach as overly accommodating.
Robert Baines, President and CEO of the NATO Association of Canada, said alliance leaders are likely to continue working to keep Trump engaged while avoiding unnecessary confrontation.
Canada enters the summit with stronger credentials than in previous years after reaching NATO’s longstanding target of spending two per cent of GDP on defence. Ottawa achieved the benchmark through increased military investments, higher pay for Canadian Armed Forces personnel and by including the Canadian Coast Guard within national defence spending calculations.
The federal government has also committed billions toward military modernization, including investments in ports, air bases and a new submarine fleet, positioning Canada to work toward NATO’s new five per cent spending goal by 2035.
A senior government official said Canada has “an extremely positive narrative” heading into the summit, citing what it described as generational investments in national defence.
During the summit, Carney will participate in the NATO Defence Industry Forum, where he is expected to promote Canada’s leadership in defence financing and innovation. He will also attend the North Atlantic Council meeting alongside leaders from all 32 NATO member states, where allies will outline plans to convert spending commitments into operational military capabilities.
Despite Canada’s increased investments, experts caution that many of the country’s major defence projects—including new submarines and advanced surveillance systems—will take years before becoming operational.
Christopher Coates of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute said Canada’s modernization plans represent meaningful progress but noted that the lengthy procurement timelines mean tangible military capabilities will not arrive immediately.
Carney is also expected to update allies on Canada’s proposed Defence, Security and Resilience Bank, which will be headquartered in Canada, and reaffirm Ottawa’s continued support for Ukraine as Russia’s war continues.
While the prime minister has several bilateral meetings scheduled during the summit, officials have not confirmed whether he will meet directly with Trump. The two leaders last spoke briefly during the G7 summit, where an open microphone captured Carney discussing Canada’s policy on Chinese electric vehicles, prompting a positive response from the U.S. president.
