17 January: The Liberal Party has seen a significant recovery in public support, narrowing the Conservative Party’s lead from a historic 25-point advantage a month ago to just 11 points, according to the latest polling. The Conservatives now lead with 39%, while the Liberals hold 28%. The NDP remains in third place with 17%, showing no apparent gains despite their stated intent to challenge the current government.
This turnaround is largely attributed to dramatic changes in Ontario, where the Liberals have erased a 22-point Conservative lead to now hold a small, statistically insignificant advantage. In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois maintains a modest lead, but the province has become a competitive three-way race. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals and Conservatives are neck-and-neck, while Alberta remains a Conservative stronghold. British Columbia shows a 16-point Conservative lead.
Demographically, the Conservatives continue to dominate with men but trail slightly among women, where the Liberals hold a narrow lead. The Conservatives lead across most age groups, except seniors, where the Liberals have a modest edge. The Conservatives enjoy substantial support from working-class Canadians, while university graduates are evenly split between the two parties.
Despite these gains for the Liberals, the Conservatives would still secure a decisive victory with current numbers. However, their potential for a majority government remains uncertain due to over-concentrated support in Alberta and Saskatchewan, coupled with a slight Liberal advantage in Ontario.
The factors driving this shift remain unclear but may include Mark Carney’s entry into the Liberal leadership race, ongoing discussions about Chrystia Freeland’s candidacy, or a growing sense of national unity ahead of Donald Trump’s upcoming inauguration.
Polling Methodology:
The survey was conducted from January 13-16, 2025, using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology. It included a dual landline and cell phone random digit dialing (RDD) sampling frame to minimize coverage bias. A total of 1,036 Canadians aged 18 and over participated, with a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region to reflect Canada’s population based on Census data. Additionally, weighting was applied for COVID-19 vaccine uptake to better include those less likely to participate in surveys due to institutional mistrust. Please note that margins of error increase for smaller sub-groups, such as region, age, or education levels.
