Support for Alberta separatism has dropped significantly since the start of 2026, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted for the media, suggesting momentum behind the movement is weakening ahead of a provincial vote this fall.
The survey found that only 19 per cent of Albertans would vote in favour of holding a future binding referendum on separation, while 72 per cent would vote to remain in Canada. The remaining respondents were undecided or said they would not vote.
If a binding separation referendum were eventually held, support for leaving Canada would stand at 18 per cent, down 10 percentage points from the 28 per cent recorded in January. Meanwhile, 72 per cent said they would vote to stay in Canada.
Ipsos Canada chairman Darrell Bricker said support appears to be softening as Albertans increasingly consider the real-world implications of separation.
The poll also found that voters opposed to separation are more firmly committed to their position. Among those planning to vote to remain in Canada, 90 per cent described their choice as definite, compared with 70 per cent among those supporting separation.
Regional differences were evident across the province. Calgary showed the lowest support for both a referendum and separation, with only 14 per cent backing a referendum and 12 per cent supporting independence. Support was somewhat higher in Edmonton and strongest in rural and smaller urban areas outside the province’s two largest cities.
Political affiliation also played a major role. Among supporters of the governing United Conservative Party, opinion was divided, with roughly half favouring remaining in Canada and about four in ten supporting a referendum or separation. NDP supporters overwhelmingly backed staying in Canada.
The survey found younger Albertans were more likely to support separation than older residents, while motivations among separatist supporters have shifted. A majority now say they believe Alberta would have a better future outside Canada, rather than citing historical grievances against Ottawa.
The findings come as Premier Danielle Smith prepares for an October provincial vote that will include a question on Alberta’s future within Canada. The question was added after legal challenges stalled a citizen-led petition campaign seeking an independence referendum.
Outside Alberta, support for provincial separation remains low. The poll found only 11 per cent of Canadians outside Alberta would support their own province separating from Canada, though support was notably higher in Quebec at 30 per cent.
